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Latest pay deals

2.0% pay increase in the three months to July

The median increase in pay in the three months to July was 2.0% - the increase on the lowest pay rate was also 2.0%.

The median increase this payround (August-July) is also 2.0%.

Figures for August 2016 are due to be published on 13 September 2016.
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Average earnings

Growth up to 2.2% in June

In the year to June 2016, earnings growth for the whole economy (excluding bonuses) was up to 2.2% from the revised rise for May of 2.0%.

According to the Average Weekly Earnings data published by the Office for National Statistics, growth in the headline rate (the latest three-month average) for regular pay, excluding bonuses, was up to 2.3% in June from 2.2% for the previous month.

Headline average earnings growth in manufacturing was up to 2.4% from 2.2%, but growth in services was unchanged at 1.9%.

In the private sector as a whole, the growth was up to 2.4% from 2.3%. In the public sector, excluding financial services, growth was unchanged at 1.7%.

Figures for July 2016 are due to be published on 14 September 2016.
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Retail prices

RPI inflation rate up to 1.9% in the year to July 2016

In July, the Retail Prices Index (RPI) was up to 263.4 (January 1987=100) and the annual rate of inflation was up to 1.9% from 1.6% the previous month.

Under the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) - the government's preferred measure of inflation – the annual inflation rate was up to 0.6% in July from 0.5% the previous month June.

Figures for August 2016 are due to be published on 13 September 2016.
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Unemployment

Unemployment down by 52,000 in the three months to June

UK unemployment under the Labour Force Survey count fell by 52,000 to 1,641,000 in the three-month period April - June 2016, compared with the previous three-month figure (January 2016 - March 2016) of 1,692,000.

The fall in numbers helped cut the unemployment rate to 4.9% from 5.1%

The Office for National Statistic's claimant count total includes people out of work and claiming Jobseeker's Allowance or Universal Credit.

In July 2016, the claimant count under this experimental statistic was 763,600 - an 8,600 fall on the heavily revised upwards total for June 2016 of 772,200.

Nevertheless, the joblessness rate was steady at 2.2%.

Figures for July 2016 (unemployment) and August 2016 (claimant count) are due out on 14 September 2016.
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Retail prices

Retail price inflation falls further to 1.0% and CPI is also low at 0.5%.

The latest inflation figures cover the month to May 2020, showing that the impact of the coronavirus crisis has been to push inflation down.

In May, the Retail Prices Index (RPI) stood at 292.2 (January 1987=100) and the annual rate of inflation continued its crisis-induced drop to 1.0% from 1.5% in April. This is the measure preferred by trade unionists.

Inflation has been somewhat affected by goods and services unavailable due to the lockdown and by the temporary closure of the housing market.

Falling prices for motor fuels and a variety of recreational and cultural goods resulted in the largest downward contributions to inflation, whilst rising prices for food, particularly fish and meat such as lamb and sugar, potato products and non-alcoholic drinks such as coffee resulted in a partially offsetting upward push.

Under the Consumer Prices Index Housing (CPIH), the annual rate of inflation in May was down to 0.7% from 0.9% in April.

The annual rate of inflation under the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) in May was also down to 0.5% from 0.8%.

Figures for June 2020 are due to be published on 15 July 2020.

Latest pay deals

2.5% pay increase in the three months to May 2020

The median increase in pay in the three months to May 2020 was 2.5%. The median increase in the lowest pay rate was also 2.5%.

However coronavirus has led to many pay negotiations being put on hold, so these figures are based on fewer pay settlements than normal, with a higher proportion of settlements from multi-stage multi-year agreements.

Figures for June 2020 are due to be published on 15 July 2020.

Pay deals are calculated from Payline database of over 2,000 pay and conditions settlements. graph of pay settlements and inflation

Average earnings

Growth down to 0.0% in April

In April 2020, which was a full month under coronavirus lockdown conditions, average weekly earnings for the whole economy, excluding bonuses, did not increase, compared to a 2.4% increase last month.

Growth in the April headline rate (the latest three-month average) for regular pay, excluding bonuses, was 1.7% against 2.7% for March, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Employees’ average pay growth slowed noticeably in April, and the three months February to April saw total pay fall in real terms for the first time since January 2018; pay declined in industries where furloughing was most prominent, many of these being the lowest-paying industries, in particular accommodation and food service activities.

Headline average earnings growth in manufacturing was down to just 0.1% from 1.5% in March, while wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants fell to 0.1% from 2.3%.

In the private sector as a whole, headline rate growth was down to 1.3% from 2.5%, whilst single month growth showed a fall of -0.8%.
In the public sector, excluding financial services, the headline rate of growth stayed at 3.3%.

Figures for May 2020 are due to be published on 16 July 2020.

Unemployment

Unemployment figures yet to capture impact of virus, but claimant count way up

Labour Force Survey estimates cover the 3 month period ending April 2020, they are based on interviews, half of which occurred prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown.

February to April figures show weakening employment rates, with male employees and self-employed seeing reductions; the reduction in total hours worked is a record both on the year and the quarter despite half of the period covered being prior to the implementation of coronavirus (COVID-19) measures.

For February to April 2020, an estimated 1.34 million people were unemployed.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9%.

However, according to the ONS, the imputation used for the Labour Force Survey was not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months.

The ONS’ claimant count total includes people out of work and claiming Jobseeker's Allowance or Universal Credit.
In May 2020, under this experimental statistic, the claimant count has increased by 125.9% since March 2020.

The region with the largest overall percentage increase was the South East, which increased by 175.7% overall, 107.9% in April and 67.7% in May compared with the March level. The North East had the lowest overall percentage increase of 71.7% overall, 59.5% in April and 12.2% in May compared with the March level.

The total rose to 2,801.729 from the revised figure for April of 2,272,812 a monthly increase of 23.3% and an increase of 125.9%, or 1.6 million, since March 2020.

The claimant rate shot up to 7.8% from 6.3% the month before.

Figures for May (unemployment) and June (claimant count) are due to be published on 16 July 2020.
 

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